A good half of citizens in the U.S. seem to be in serious denial concerning global warming. Now this summer, this year, has been bloody hot, but sure we shouldn't make to much of regional or short term weather trends, still it is folly to ignore the shrinkage of glaciers, the break up of ice sheets, or the accelerated pace of the blooming of plants, these are symptoms of a problem that reflect more than a months worth of weather anomaly. The argument that global warming is occurring but may not be caused by our manic burning of fossil fuels is a more worthwhile argument, but in the absence of strong consensus the attitude taken must be one of do no harm, we may not be the sundae but there is no reason to be the cherry that tops it either.
In any rate since global warming is occurring, (it is just get over the scrabbling for arguments that it isn't, glaciers don't dissappear in the cold), and since we are unable to develope any sort of strategic approach as to how to deal with it, what can we expect as things move forward? There seems to be a feeling even on the part of those who believe in the phenomenon that we will make a transition to a green economy at some point and all will be well, either that or we will simply fry. However things don't often happen in such black and white terms.
First off there isn't the time or the economic means to make the kind of transition we need in the time we need. There isn't the capital, there isn't the will, there isn't the time to build, there isn't the time to overcome local resistance, (let's see Republicans in name only are called RHINOS, what do we call the liberals who cry about global warming but don't want a wind farm in their back yard because it will affect their property values), it just isn't going to happen, so conservation is the only option.
Now there is also the idea that there will be as much good as bad from this whole thing, that deserts will be quenched, that tundra will become corn fields. A perfectly lovely idea but we must realize that if this happens a lot of arable land will also be lost, and the bottom line is that the global agricultural infrastructure will need to be re-worked, rail lines will need to be rerouted, storage facilities, markets, fuel delivery, processing plants, etc. will all need to be moved or rebuilt. This will account for a serious cost. Not only that but the face of global trade will change also, perhaps in serious and troublesome ways.
So when the inevitable becomes obvious, obvious to all, what will the reaction be? The state will move to enforce stability, to stem the damage. What I believe we can expect will be mandated restrictions on the commuter culture, enforced black outs, restrictions on the use of energy intensive consumer goods. No the state will not let us burn the planet up, to do so insures the end of the state, and if their is one thing governments are loath to do it is to allow their end, the only question will be if their efforts will be too little too late.
This will be yet another drag on economic activity, to go along with resource scarcity, an aging labor force, the drag of high debt on low growth, deflation, and the inability to ignite meaningfull asset bubbles as heavy economic negatives to overcome as we move into this suspect century.