He stumbles out of the shadows, fluttering charts of dubious value, a snowstorm behind him. Angry at the keyboard, angry at the bloody BEA, QUIT HAUNTING ME! Numbers, numbers, where is my assistant? Where is my bourbon? WHERE IS MY MEDICINE?!
In “04-“05 real GDP grew at around 350 billion dollars, the trade deficit ran about 600 billion dollars in “05, the federal deficit in “05 was a hair over 300 billion dollars, net borrowing on the part of the U.S. in “05 was 775 billion dollars, and interest payments on the part of the government in “05 ran to about 350 billion dollars. That growth in GDP was 3.2%, not too bad. Too bad it wasn’t growth…Output, consumption driven by debt, and not even equaling the debt, who conceived of THIS deal? And the hogs in Washington are still running to the trough, even as the growth, or the illusion of it dries up…and interest sapping that…The country needs a fall guy, and Bush is poised to sucker up to that role, not even his friends are sticking around for desert, enough of this dinner, even the band is playing for free.
Meanwhile entitlements are ready to completely strip consumption. It doesn’t matter how you solve the problem, raise taxes, lower benefits, all negatives…In any case the greys wont be buying the way they used to…subtract that…
So we’ll reform health care, that’ll help. Heck the health care industry is the only thing producing jobs, it’s a rare domestic growth industry. You people should be worshipping the waste, throwing money at the insurance agency, the pharm boys, and the doctors like there is no tomorrow…without them there is no economy…
So how do you like your economy without growth? How are your share prices doing? Doesn’t matter much anyway, when everyone starts liquidating their shares to pay the ravenous beast of health care they wont be worth anything anyway, buyers market, simplest scenario ever. So just run on the profits, baby. Oh so sorry no one has any money to spend, at least not money worth anything.
We’re awash in dollars, bathing in them, we’re using them to wipe our asses and light our cigars. We’re wrapping our smuggled heroin in them, the border guards wont even bother with them, wont even look at them, just a few euros to grease the wheels and roll on through. So how is it you can have so many dollars and not be able to buy anything? The money runs up the price of assets, soaks up the gravy, until earnings potential to support the price becomes an issue. You gotta produce the cash flow, BUT THE ECONOMY IS SHRINKING. Not even the Fed can raise interest rates without smiling, it’s like DeBeers, we’ll give you the illusion it’s worth something…In all honesty though back home we use the cash to stuff mannequins, and they all look like bankers, it’s a riot…
The long unwind is almost here, but there is still money to be made, mergers to make, fudging in the currency markets, stimulus to be handed around like coke on a silver platter…but the growth is going away, hell it’s gone, and that’s all the rats live for. There are no safety nets that’ll catch this trapeze act. Don’t turn away, watch them fall, watch their bodies break, a show like this only happens once an empire.
He jolts upright, a bad dream, dozing off, the talking heads will set me right…the keyboard is slick with saliva. Bed, maybe I’ll make it there tonight, I’ll rely on others, ride the new year hard, God bless you…The strength, the will here…isn’t…